26-week national average diesel and gasoline prices. Impact-modeled for a 20-van Amazon DSP fleet running 80 miles/day at 14 MPG.
Weekly retail prices, Oct 2025 – Mar 2026
Percentage change from Oct 6, 2025 baseline
Oct–Jan decline: Diesel fell from $3.71 to $3.46/gal (−6.8%) as seasonal demand weakened and global crude settled near $70/bbl. Fleet operators saw monthly fuel costs drop by ~$500/month for a 20-van operation.
Jan–early Mar recovery: Prices climbed gradually as refinery maintenance season reduced output and spring driving demand picked up. Diesel reached $3.90/gal by early March — still within normal seasonal range.
Mar 9 — Strait of Hormuz disruption: Iranian naval exercises and a tanker incident near the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude above $95/bbl within days. Diesel spiked 24.7% in a single week ($3.90 → $4.86), the largest weekly jump since the 2022 Ukraine crisis. The disruption threatens ~20% of global oil transit.
Current trajectory: Diesel has continued climbing to $5.40/gal as supply constraints persist. Fleet operators are now paying $3,305/month more than October baseline. If prices stabilize here, annualized fuel spend for a 20-van diesel fleet reaches ~$126,700 — up from $87,100 in October.
For a DSP running 20 Sprinter vans at 80 miles/day and 14 MPG:
At October prices ($3.71/gal), per-stop fuel was $0.111. Current per-stop: $0.162 — a 46% increase that compounds across 100K+ monthly stops.