More packages are moving than ever, and last-mile is absorbing more of the bill than ever too. Growth alone won't fix your margin if the cost curve keeps bending your way.
U.S. parcel shipments are projected to reach 24.6 billion packages in 2026, a 4.9% increase over 2025, according to Capital One Shopping research. That works out to roughly 66.8 million packages moving through the delivery network every single day this year. Globally, the picture is even bigger — an estimated 435 billion packages are expected to ship worldwide in 2026, up from 407 billion the year before, per the same research.
The volume growth is real, but it comes with a catch that matters more to operators than shippers: last-mile delivery now accounts for up to 53-55% of total shipping costs, up from 41% in 2018, according to Pitney Bowes' Parcel Shipping Index. In other words, the fastest-growing segment of the shipping chain is also the segment eating the largest — and growing — share of the cost pie. Major carriers have announced average rate increases of 5.8% for Q3 2026 alone, per the same index, a signal that the cost pressure isn't easing even as volume climbs.
For last-mile operators, more stops on the board isn't automatically more margin in the bank. If your per-stop economics don't scale as fast as the volume does — because fuel, labor, and vehicle costs are climbing in parallel — growth just means running faster to stay in the same place. The operators who come out ahead this cycle will be the ones who know their real cost per stop before they say yes to more volume, not after.
Know your real cost per stop before your next rate negotiation: pexara.ai/calculator.