The forecasts are in, and they're not subtle: peak season 2026 is going to move more packages than last year, through a system that's already stretched thin on margin.
ShipMatrix projects 2.3 billion packages will move through the U.S. parcel network during peak season this year, roughly 5% higher than the same stretch in 2024 — driven largely by an extra shopping day on the calendar rather than a genuine demand surge. Zoom out further and Pitney Bowes' Parcel Shipping Index puts total 2026 U.S. parcel volume at 24.6 billion packages, up from 23.1 billion in 2025, a roughly 6% year-over-year climb.
Here's the tension operators need to sit with: FreightWaves reports that FedEx and UPS are layering on peak season surcharges even as their own volume growth projections stay muted — a pricing move that's accelerating the shift of e-commerce shippers toward alternative capacity, including Amazon's own network, regional carriers, and independent last-mile fleets. Amazon Logistics is already handling close to a quarter of all U.S. parcel deliveries, per Pitney Bowes data, and that share isn't shrinking.
For last-mile operators, that combination — rising volume, legacy carrier surcharges, and shippers actively hunting for alternatives — is an opening. Capacity that can flex for peak without breaking on cost-per-stop is exactly what shippers priced out of the Big Carrier surcharge structure are looking for. The operators who know their real numbers going into Q4 negotiate from strength; the ones guessing don't.
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