As of April 13, US retail diesel stands at $5.61/gallon — with projections pointing to another 7.5% annualized increase. If you haven't updated your cost-per-stop model lately, you're probably underpricing your routes.
For most last-mile operators, fuel is the second-largest variable cost after labor. At $5.61/gallon, a cargo van doing 150-180 miles per day at 14-16 MPG burns roughly $53-$57 in diesel daily. Multiply that by your fleet size and you're looking at a significant daily expense that moves entirely outside your control — unless you're tracking it stop by stop.
The per-stop math sharpens quickly. A van completing 100 stops on 160 miles spends approximately $0.56 in fuel per stop. Factor in diesel exhaust fluid, oil changes calibrated to hard daily cycles, and DPF servicing, and your true fuel-adjacent cost lands closer to $0.70-$0.75 per stop.
What makes the current environment particularly difficult: fuel costs are accelerating, not just rising. Signal data projects diesel climbing at 7.5% annualized, with no inflection expected for at least four months. That's not a spike to wait out — it's a structural increase that needs to factor into any rate renewal conversations happening this quarter.
The operators absorbing the most pain are those locked into fixed-rate contracts negotiated when diesel was significantly cheaper. If your agreement has no fuel surcharge clause or escalation language, you're absorbing every cent of the increase yourself.
Review your fuel surcharge structure before your next contract renewal. If your agreement was written when diesel was under $4.50, the economics have already moved against you.
See how fuel's share of your cost per stop stacks up — free calculator at pexara.ai/calculator.