Demo Independent Agency · Synthetic Texas P&C bookSynthetic demo

Evidence Drawer

The portal needs to show its work before it asks for trust.

This page keeps the model honest. It separates synthetic mechanics that are already working from claims that require real artifacts, advisor review, or a future industry-intelligence layer.

Supports
  • The parser can ingest, foot, and reconcile the current synthetic carrier statement set.
  • The engine can produce carrier recovery packets from line-level findings.
  • The renewal calendar can be converted into a 90-day triage queue and a 12-month commission view.
  • The CPA/advisor packet can route questions to the right reviewer without giving regulated advice.
Does not support
  • A claim that a real agency has recoverable commission without real statements and agreements.
  • Any carrier placement steering conclusion from contingency math.
  • A point estimate of agency value, sale advice, or fairness opinion.
  • A claim that tax, legal, lender, or licensing treatment has already been validated.
Still missing
  • Executed DUA and intake controls.
  • Real AMS export, carrier statements, and commission agreements.
  • Contingency contracts, production reports, and loss-ratio qualification.
  • Financial statements, retention history, and lender-calibrated valuation method.
Provenance trail

Every claim gets a maturity label

Current seed artifact: public/data/agency_diagnostic.json (committed engine artifact, contract agency_diagnostic.v1). A real portal should keep this same proof discipline when uploads, contracts, production reports, and market data are added.

Open advisor packet
synthetic_validated

Commission leakage is packet-ready in the synthetic run.

Basis

18 statements and 4377 lines foot cleanly, then reconcile against expected commission.

Limit

Carrier verification and real commission agreements are not loaded.

synthetic_validated

Renewal defense can prioritize the next 90 days.

Basis

875 active renewals are ranked by rate shock, tenure, monoline status, and commission at stake.

Limit

Producer assignment, save-plan outcomes, and real agency workflow rules are missing.

illustrative_only

Contingency tracker is an assumption model.

Basis

Synthetic premium is compared with illustrative thresholds.

Limit

No carrier contracts, production reports, loss-ratio qualification, or placement-duty review.

directional_model

Valuation band is a directional commission-revenue range only.

Basis

$2,179,847 annual book commission (the agency's revenue) times a 1.5x - 2.5x P&C book multiple band.

Limit

No lender calibration, deal comps, financial statements, or transaction advice.

Future industry expert layer

Broader market context belongs behind a source gate

The next knowledge layer can add state rate trends, carrier appetite shifts, agency transaction comps, producer recruiting pressure, E&O and licensing watch items, and lender appetite. The portal should label that material as context unless it is source-backed and relevant to the specific agency decision on screen.