Diesel at $5.62: The Per-Van Fuel Cost Recalculation You Haven't Run Yet
Diesel crossed $5.62 per gallon this week according to AAA pricing data — up more than 40 percent from the pre-war baseline as the Iran conflict extends the Strait of Hormuz disruption into its fifth week, according to CNBC. That's not a fuel price spike that rounds out. It's a sustained structural cost shift. The operators still running fleet models against pre-February fuel assumptions are working with numbers that no longer describe their operation.
What the Baseline Actually Was, and What It Is Now
Pexara fleet benchmark data puts fuel cost at $422 per van per month — a figure calibrated against diesel at the pre-war average. Diesel has risen approximately 41% since the start of the Iran conflict, per Pexara calculation from EIA baseline data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's current national diesel average for early April 2026 sits at $5.38 per gallon. AAA's daily retail price tracking reached $5.62 this week.
Run the adjustment on the Pexara baseline:
| Diesel price | Est. monthly fuel cost/van | Delta from baseline | |---|---|---| | Pre-war baseline | $422 | — | | $5.00 (March 17 crossover) | $556 | +$134 | | $5.38 (EIA national avg, April 2026) | $598 | +$176 | | $5.62 (AAA, April 7, 2026) | $624 | +$202 |
For a 20-van fleet, the delta between pre-war fuel cost and today runs $3,520 to $4,040 per month — $42,240 to $48,480 per year. That's money that wasn't in any operating budget built before February, and it has arrived in approximately eight weeks.
The Per-Stop Impact
Pexara fleet benchmark data breaks the $422 monthly fuel baseline down to $0.32 per stop at a typical volume of 1,320 stops per van per month (60 stops per day, 22 delivery days). At current EIA diesel prices, that per-stop fuel cost has moved:
| Diesel price | Fuel cost per stop | |---|---| | Pre-war baseline | $0.32 | | $5.38 (EIA national avg) | $0.45 | | $5.62 (AAA) | $0.47 |
The $0.13 to $0.15 per-stop increase looks small in isolation. At 1,320 stops per van per month, it generates $172 to $198 in additional monthly fuel cost per van — consistent with the absolute dollar table above. Against a $12-per-stop delivery rate, the margin impact is approximately 1.1 to 1.25 percentage points from fuel alone. Against a $9 rate, it's closer to 1.7 points.
The number doesn't go away. Every stop adds to it, every day the conflict continues.
What Amazon's Fuel Surcharge Does and Doesn't Do
Amazon announced a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on FBA fulfillment services, effective April 17, according to Supply Chain Dive and CNBC. The surcharge — averaging approximately 17 cents per unit shipped through Amazon's warehousing network — applies to third-party sellers using Fulfillment by Amazon.
It is not a DSP rate adjustment.
The FBA surcharge is a signal: Amazon is absorbing fuel cost increases in its own fulfillment economics and passing them through to its seller ecosystem. That transmission mechanism doesn't extend downstream to DSP operators. The per-stop rate that DSPs receive for last-mile delivery is a separate contractual structure from FBA fulfillment fees, and no comparable fuel cost passthrough has been announced for DSP rate cards as of this writing.
For DSP operators, the fuel cost increase lands entirely on the expense side. Revenue is unchanged.
The Calculation to Run This Week
The math is not complicated. Take your fleet size. Multiply by $176 to $202 — the delta between your pre-war fuel baseline and the current EIA-to-AAA price range. That's your monthly additional fuel cost. Multiply by 12 for the annualized figure.
For context:
| Fleet size | Additional monthly fuel cost | Additional annual fuel cost | |---|---|---| | 10 vans | $1,760–$2,020 | $21,120–$24,240 | | 20 vans | $3,520–$4,040 | $42,240–$48,480 | | 50 vans | $8,800–$10,100 | $105,600–$121,200 |
Operators running diesel Sprinters carry higher per-mile fuel expense than those on gasoline Ford Transits, so fleet composition affects the exact magnitude. But the directional reality is uniform: every fleet model built before February has an uncorrected fuel cost error in it. The variable in question is only how large that error is relative to your total operating margin.
The Iran war is in week five with no clear resolution timeline. The IRU — the World Road Transport Organisation — reported in early April that fuel prices are still climbing. Budgeting against a near-term price decline is not a strategy. Knowing your current all-in cost per van per month — fuel adjusted, not budgeted — is.
Sources: AAA national fuel pricing data (diesel $5.62, April 7, 2026); U.S. Energy Information Administration national diesel average (April 2026); CNBC, "U.S. gasoline hits $4 per gallon, highest since 2022, as Iran war drives up fuel prices more than 30%," March 31, 2026; CNBC, "Amazon to add fuel and logistics surcharge for sellers as Iran war drives up energy prices," April 2, 2026; Supply Chain Dive, "Amazon to apply 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on fulfillment," April 2026; IRU — World Road Transport Organisation, "Iran war: fuel prices still climbing," April 2026; Pexara fleet benchmark data (fuel cost per van baseline, cost per stop model)