Diesel sat at $5.35/gal as of June 1. The real story isn't the price — it's the direction.
Fleet operators squeezed by fuel costs aren't just dealing with a high baseline — they're watching the signal accelerate. Pexara fleet benchmark data projects diesel costs rising at +6.8% annualized, and the underlying EIA trend confirms the acceleration hasn't peaked.
What that means in practice: an operator running 40 vans at 150 stops/day sees fuel costs compound quietly until the next rate negotiation catches them off-guard. At $5.35/gal and a typical last-mile van burning 15–18 mpg on a 120-mile daily route, fuel cost per stop runs between $0.47 and $0.57 per delivery — not including weekend dead miles.
The wrinkle: most DSP and carrier contracts were structured when diesel sat closer to $3.50–$4.00. Fuel surcharge clauses in those agreements were calibrated to that world. Operators who haven't revisited their surcharge triggers since 2023 are eating the gap.
Diesel's trajectory also matters for acquisition planning. Van leases written today reflect current operating cost assumptions. A +6.8% annualized fuel increase over a 36-month lease term adds real dollars to total cost of ownership that most operators aren't modeling at signing.
The inflection point, per current signal data, is expected within 4 months — but "expected inflection" doesn't mean "prices drop." It means the rate of increase may slow. The floor isn't visible yet.
Operators with fuel surcharge clauses tied to EIA weekly data should audit their trigger thresholds now. Those with fixed-rate contracts have no floor — they're fully exposed.
See how this affects your cost per stop — free calculator at pexara.ai/calculator